Friday, March 16, 2007

Trade: Long ZUMZ @ $39.02

The stock cleared the big base to all time high after the earnings announcement on very heavy volume. This is the second big volume day in the last 5 days for this stock which could signal serious money is being commited to this stock. Bought 5,000 shares at $39.02 after the price started to stabilized. Stop will be set around $37.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

You'll likely be stopped out, although there's nothing wrong with that.

mc said...

Anon,

That's what stops are designed for...but there's a higher probability that this stock will move up after breaking out of the base.

Anonymous said...

Not good if your first ever big live trade bombs. I assume this is your first. Otherwise my apologies.

You don't feel the market could make a new low soon? If so, wouldn't ZUMZ go back to $35? Isn't the high volume purely caused by traders trading the earnings?

Good luck anyway. Hope you're paper trading this one.

mde said...

Thank you for posting these trades mc. Don't let the negative people stop you from posting. It is helping me to find other stocks that have similar patterns.

Anonymous said...

MC is right....to the other clown, keep your negativity to yourself.

Thanks for sharing MC.

Anonymous said...

Trading is all about probabilities you win some, you lose some. As long as you win more than you lose then you're doing just fine. Thanks for posting MC and don't pay attention to people that are just jerks.

Glenn said...

Thanks for sharing!!

Anonymous said...

I agree that you win some and you lose some. If you look at MC’s posted trades, almost all of them are winners. And all of them are posted several days after the trade. If you look at the other blogs that post trade at or near real time, the winning percentage are much more realistic.

The ZUMZ trade is posted close to the trade date—even though it was a day after the trade and was up for the day. The same for the HOC trade on 3/14—which is slightly down from the entry price. We’ll see how these trades work out. The best way to shut the doubters up is to post your trades near realtime...

Anonymous said...

If you think about it, mc's first ever "live" trade seems to be of a different style from his "re-view" trades.

For the "re-view" trades, he seems to buy when a stock breaks out of a consolidation following a retracement. Makes sense.

The ZUMZ trade doesn't follow this style. ZUMZ just had a pop after earnings. It hasn't got time to retrace and/or consolidate. Market is shaky. ZUMZ's P/S is over 4 and its P/E is about 70. Both are insanely rich for a retailer. In a down market, expensive stocks like ZUMZ could drop 10% in an hour. Seems rather reckless for a pro to commit $200K into a such a questionable trade.

I made the first 2 anon comments. I'm not trying to bash a winner. Just a healthy dose of skepticism.

mc said...

Anon,

We all have our own styles and reason/setups in getting into trades so don't start telling me about PE's and PS ratios. Is it questionable because I does not fit into your trading style???

And don't worry, 200K will not put me and my family into the streets...and any well experienced trader should already know that the position size is a function of capital size and risk parameter.

I'm guessing that you are also new to my blogsite because you assumed that these are the only trades I have posted here....maybe you can check the TRADE and DAY TRADE categories first.

If you are asking for trade alerts and close to realtime posting then maybe you should go to subscription based website.

Anonymous said...

I'm not criticizing your trades. It's none of my business. I'm just trying to point out that they may not be real.

Neither am I trying to force you to post live trades. I trade my own way and wouldn't care a bit how others trade. Trader X never posted a live trade but I never said a word on his site.

Frankly, I believe your trades are fake. Lots of people look up to you and I feel they're influenced in the wrong way.

If you're real, my sincere apologies. I'm not faking this.

Anonymous said...

anon,
MC has been posting his trade tickets to prove himself to people like you. I do not believe he is faking anything and you sound very bitter. Are you losing money or what? Also, what would be the point for him to fake this entire blog when there is no ads at all. Take your negative bias somewhere else man.

JHG

IIO said...

do you have a target in mind for this trade? thanks

mc said...

Anon,

Apology accepted but you don't have to ask for it...you are entitled to your own opinion.

Thank you for the healthy discussion though.

JHG, thanks for having my back but hopefully anon can share some of his knowledge also so we can have a wider perspective/understanding of his trading style.

IIO, most breakouts run for 15-20% before going into consolidation.

Anonymous said...

Per Anonymous, too bad you didn't paper-trade this one. It would have looked good on paper. :)

I entered at $39.50 after $39.00 held. It is "acting well".

While I liked reading your daytrades, I am happy that you went back to the old journal. As you've gotten more exposure, there seems to be a number of people waiting for you to fail, probably to make them feel better about their own losses. You shouldn't need to justify your strategy, methods and successes to anyone. Real-time posting or not, readers need to make their own decisions and take responsibility for his or her profit(s)/loss(es). Keep up the good work and good luck with this ZUMZ position. -TVH

mc said...

Thanks for your kind words TVH!